BlackBerry today forecast as much as 54% jump in 2026 sales from current year on the back of growth in its cybersecurity business, sending shares up 5%.
The company expects 2026 revenue to be between $880 million and $960 million.
The company released the following guidance:
| Revenue Targets | FY23Actual | FY24Outlook | FY26Target | 3-year CAGR | ||
| $M | $M | $M | % | |||
| IoT* | 206 | 240 – 250 | 340 – 370 | 18% – 22% | ||
| Cybersecurity | 418 | 425 – 450 | 540 – 590 | 9% – 12% | ||
| Total BlackBerry** | 624 | 665 – 700 | 880 – 960 | 12% – 15% | ||
| * Excludes potential revenue from BlackBerry IVY™ | ||||||
| ** Excludes revenue from Licensing & Other for comparability | ||||||
The Company is targeting:
- An average 200+ basis points increase in non-GAAP gross margin per year to FY26.
- To deliver significant improvements in non-GAAP EPS loss and cash flow usage in FY24, and to achieve non-GAAP profitability in Q4 FY24.
- To generate positive full-year non-GAAP EPS and cash flow beginning in FY25.
IoT:
- Based on long-term averages, approximately 20% of BlackBerry QNX’s revenue is generated from development seats and 20% from professional services (collectively “design phase revenue”) and 60% from production-based royalties (“production phase revenue”).
- Given the strong year for new design wins in FY23 and the macroeconomic headwinds for production-based royalties, design phase revenues currently form a larger percentage of revenue relative to production phase revenue than the long-term average.
- Production-based royalties have historically generated higher gross margins than design phase revenues, and therefore as they return towards the long-term average proportion of total IoT revenue, it is expected that gross margins for the IoT business unit will increase.
- BlackBerry is targeting additional IVY design wins in FY24.
- Management considers BlackBerry QNX royalty backlog to be the most relevant key metric for the IoT business.
Cybersecurity:
- Gross margin for the Cybersecurity business unit is expected to increase by between 400bps and 600bps by FY26.
- The total addressable market (TAM) for the endpoint security market is expected to grow at 15% per year to 2026, and the TAM for the managed security services market is expected to grow at 14% per year to 2026. Source: IDC Worldwide Security Forecast 2022-2026.
- Annual recurring revenue (ARR), for the Cybersecurity business unit is expected to return to sequential growth in the second half of the current fiscal year.
- Total Contract Value (TCV) Billings is expected to be in the range of $430 – $480 million for FY24.
- Management considers ARR and TCV billings to be the most relevant key metrics for the Cybersecurity business.
BlackBerry in December said revenue from its cybersecurity business would remain flat in the first half of 2023, but grow in the latter half.
The company on Wednesday also reiterated its 2024 revenue forecast of $665 million to $700 million, compared with analysts’ estimates of $701 million, according to Refinitiv data.
